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Figure 6: Global Impact Illustration. Unit is in percentage point decrease. China is in orange and has a reduction of 4%. Light grey color: not included due to lack of data. © Luo, Shaowen and Tsang, Kwok Ping. 0

China and World Output Impact of the Hubei Lockdown During the Coronavirus Outbreak

Using a network approach, we estimate the output loss due to the lockdown of the Hubei province triggered by the coronavirus disease (COVID-19). Based on our most conservative estimate, China suffers about 4% loss of output from labor loss, and global output drops by 1% due to the economic contraction in China. About 40% of the impact is indirect, coming from spillovers through the supply chain inside and outside China.

Panel B - Date through which data were used to estimate R. © Majumder, Maimuna and Mandl, Kenneth D. 0

Early Transmissibility Assessment of a Novel Coronavirus in Wuhan, China

Between December 1, 2019 and January 26, 2020, nearly 3000 cases of respiratory illness caused by a novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China have been reported. In this short analysis, we combine publicly available cumulative case data from the ongoing outbreak with phenomenological modeling methods to conduct an early transmissibility assessment. Our model suggests that the basic reproduction number associated with the outbreak (at time of writing) may range from 2.0 to 3.1. Though these estimates are preliminary and subject to change, they are consistent with previous findings regarding the transmissibility of the related SARS-Coronavirus and indicate the possibility of epidemic potential.