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Archive du mois : janvier 2020

couverture de la revue Journal of Medical Virology. 0

Potential of large “first generation” human‐to‐human transmission of 2019‐nCoV

To investigate the genetic diversity, time origin, and evolutionary history of the 2019‐nCoV outbreak in China and Thailand, a total of 12 genome sequences of the virus with known sampling date (24 December 2019 and 13 January 2020) and geographic location (primarily Wuhan city, Hubei Province, China, but also Bangkok, Thailand) were analyzed. Phylogenetic and likelihood‐mapping analyses of these genome sequences were performed. On the basis of our results, the star‐like signal and topology of 2019‐nCoV may be indicative of potentially large “first generation” human‐to‐human virus transmission. We estimated that 2019‐nCoV likely originated in Wuhan on 9 November 2019 (95% credible interval: 25 September 2019 and 19 December 2019), and that Wuhan is the major hub for the spread of the 2019‐nCoV outbreak in China and elsewhere. Our results could be useful for designing effective prevention strategies for 2019‐nCoV in China and beyond.

Panel B - Date through which data were used to estimate R. © Majumder, Maimuna and Mandl, Kenneth D. 0

Early Transmissibility Assessment of a Novel Coronavirus in Wuhan, China

Between December 1, 2019 and January 26, 2020, nearly 3000 cases of respiratory illness caused by a novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China have been reported. In this short analysis, we combine publicly available cumulative case data from the ongoing outbreak with phenomenological modeling methods to conduct an early transmissibility assessment. Our model suggests that the basic reproduction number associated with the outbreak (at time of writing) may range from 2.0 to 3.1. Though these estimates are preliminary and subject to change, they are consistent with previous findings regarding the transmissibility of the related SARS-Coronavirus and indicate the possibility of epidemic potential.

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[Chine] Coronavirus en Chine: course contre la montre à Wuhan pour livrer un hôpital

À Wuhan, épicentre de la contamination du coronavirus s 2019-nCoV en Chine, un hôpital de traitement intensif d’une superficie de plus de 20 000 m² doit être construit en un temps record. 15 nouveaux décès et 180 cas supplémentaires ont été signalés dans la province de Hubei, samedi matin. Des cas qui viennent se rajouter au précèdent bilan faisant état de 26 morts et 830 malades.

Un panneau informe les passagers à l'aéroport japonais de Narita, le 16 janvier 2020. STR / JIJI PRESS / AFP 0

[Chine] Virus chinois: Pékin minimise-t-il les chiffres de la contamination?

Quatre cas supplémentaires de personnes contaminées par le nouveau type de coronavirus ont été recensés samedi, portant le nombre total à au moins 45 patients infectés à Wuhan, dans le centre de la Chine, où la totalité des cas chinois a été signalée depuis le mois dernier. Mais certains doutent de cette version des autorités.