Effect of changing case definitions for COVID-19 on the epidemic curve and transmission parameters in mainland China: a modelling study

Auteurs : Tim K Tsang, PhD; Peng Wu, PhD; Yun Lin, BM; Eric H Y Lau, PhD; Prof. Gabriel M Leung, MD; Prof. Benjamin J Cowling, PhD.

Production : Revue The Lancet

The Lancet began as an independent, international weekly general medical journal founded in 1823 by Thomas Wakley. Since its first issue (October 5, 1823), the journal has strived to make science widely available so that medicine can serve, and transform society, and positively impact the lives of people. Over the past two centuries, The Lancet has sought to address urgent topics in our society, initiate debate, put science into context, and influence decision makers around the world. The Lancet has evolved as a family of journals (across Child & Adolescent Health, Diabetes & Endocrinology, Digital Health, Gastroenterology & Hepatology, Global Health, Haematology, HIV, Infectious Diseases, Neurology, Oncology, Planetary Health, Psychiatry, Public Health, Respiratory Medicine, Biomedicine, Clinical Medicine), but retains at its core the belief that medicine must serve society, that knowledge must transform society, that the best science must lead to better lives).

Diffusion : le site de la revue The Lancet

Date : 21 avril 2020

When a new infectious disease emerges, appropriate case definitions are important for clinical diagnosis and for public health surveillance. Tracking case numbers over time is important to establish the speed of spread and the effectiveness of interventions. We aimed to assess whether changes in case definitions affected inferences on the transmission dynamics of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China.

Source : Tim K Tsang, Peng Wu, Yun Lin, Eric H Y Lau, Gabriel M Leung, Benjamin J Cowling, “Effect of changing case definitions for COVID-19 on the epidemic curve and transmission parameters in mainland China: a modelling study”, The Lancet, 21/04/2020. DOI :  https://doi.org/10.1016/S2468-2667(20)30089-X, PDF : https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S2468-2667%2820%2930089-X (consulté le 22/04/2020)

Photo “à la une” : Reported COVID-19 cases by date of onset and the the modelled exponential growth of daily numbers of cases by application of different versions of case definitions. © The lancet

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